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Polish opposition leader Tusk declares win after exit poll shows ruling conservatives lose majority_我的网站

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A | 小松花：见信好。此时此刻，你的生物学父亲（并不是每个男人都有我这样十足的信心，这份信心源自对你伟大母亲的信任），也就是我，正在香港大学深圳医院昏暗的待产房里，听着中央空调和血压仪收缩的声音，窝在充满抓痕的旧沙发上，用iPad敲下这些文字，为你出生的过程做些记录，也让未来我们一起回忆这段甜蜜时光时，能提升一点颗粒度。套用当下最流行的MBTI十六型人格理论，你是一个很J的孩子。 WARSAW, Poland -- Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk declared the beginning of a new era for his country after opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday's parliamentary election to oust the governing nationalist conservative party.That party, Law and Justice, has bickered with allies and faced accusations of eroding rule of law at home in its eight years in power. It appeared that voters were mobilized like never before, voting in even greater numbers than when the nation ousted the communist authorities in 1989. In some places people were still in line when polling officially closed, but all were allowed to vote. If the result predicted by an exit poll holds, Law and Justice won but also lost. It got more seats than any other party but not enough to be able to lead a government that can pass laws in the legislature. The Ipsos exit poll suggested that Law and Justice obtained 200 seats. Its potential partner, the far-right Confederation got 12 seats, a showing the party acknowledged was a defeat.It also showed that three opposition parties have likely won a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm. The largest of the groups is Civic Coalition, led by Tusk, a former prime minister and former European Union president. It won 31.6% of votes, the exit poll said. “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power,” Tusk told his cheering supporters.“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is end of Law and Justice rule," Tusk added.Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged the ambiguous result. He told supporters at his headquarters that his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote, according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row. “We must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this (political) project in various ways and we will not allow Poland to be betrayed," Kaczynski said.If the result holds, and Law and Justice is the single party with the most seats, then it would most likely get the first chance to try to build a government.It falls to President Andrzej Duda, who is an ally of Law and Justice, to tap a party to try to form a government.Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Polsat News that Duda “will entrust the mission of forming the government to the winning party and in this first step we will certainly try to build a parliamentary majority."Three opposition parties, Tusk's Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, a leader of the Left party, vowed to work with the others to “create a democratic, strong, reasonable and predictable government.”Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, the head of election campaign for Third Way, called it a “huge day for our democracy.”Votes were still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.At stake are the health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.LGBTQ+ rights activist Bart Staszewski called it the end of a “nightmare” for himself as a gay man and others.“This is just the beginning of reclaiming of our country. The fight is ahead but we are breathing fresh air today,” Staszewski said.Environmental activist Dominika Lasota was emotional with relief, saying “we have our future.”Law and Justice has eroded checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the courts, public media and the electoral process itself.During the campaign many Poles described the vote as the most important one since 1989, when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.Turnout Sunday appeared to be even higher than the 63% of voters who turned out for the 1989 election that led to the ouster of the communists. Despite many uncertainties ahead, what appeared certain was that support for the governing party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 when it won nearly 44% of the vote, its popularity dented by high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.There is a high level of state ownership in the Polish economy, and the governing party has built up a system of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists. A political change could open the way for the EU to release billions of euros in funding that has been withheld over what the EU viewed as democratic erosion.Piotr Buras, of the European Council of Foreign Relations, said the opposition had gained from “growing fatigue” with the government among Poles, "beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals.” The fate of Poland's relationship with Ukraine was also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland for its help in Russia's war. Its poor showing will be a relief for Kyiv.A referendum on migration, the retirement age and other issues was held simultaneously. Some government opponents called on voters to boycott the referendum, saying it was an attempt by the government to galvanize its supporters. Many voters were seen refusing to take part in the referendum.___Associated Press journalists Kwiyeon Ha, Pietro De Cristofaro and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。你在妈妈肚子里待满40周的预产期是10月18日，由于你的很多姨姨都在满37周发动，所以早在国庆假期前，你同样很J的母亲就做好了致敬前辈的准备，敦促我收拾好了待产包和住院的行李，还威逼我把电脑搬出你的房间。于是我丧失了独自熬夜玩《空洞骑士：丝之歌》的机会（愿你也能玩到这么好的游戏）。

B | 只能说我因此增加的寿命，背后也有你对我的一片孝心。但在接下来的三周里，你安如磐石，岿然不动，除了略微提升刺激宫缩的频率，并快速怒长2斤之外，没有任何积极到来的迹象。考虑到轻微妊糖和你的体重，医生建议我们10月18日一早到医院催产。听说你已逼近7斤，又查阅了催产的痛苦，你怕疼的母亲一度流下不甘的泪水。然而10月18日凌晨5点，你本来做好悲壮准备的母亲开始感受到规律的疼痛，在疼痛持续半小时后，我们意识到情况不同以往，晚些洗澡时脱落的宫颈粘膜更是印证了这个判断。吃完了早饭（你妈妈很后悔只吃了一根芝士香肠），我们和你的奶奶和姥姥便打车前往医院，幸运地拿下最后一个套间，在检查室签署海量的文件。等到我缴纳住院押金回来，听说已经开了一指——严格按照预产期自主发动的你，帮我们节省了好几天晚上的精力和房费。唯一的代价，可能只有起床太早，我把肥水流在了医院。不过事情也并非一帆风顺。打过无痛正式待产后，你们的各项指标都特别优秀，我们一度觉得这不是产房，而是一辆信号满格的高铁。本以为下午就有生产的机会，可没想到悠闲地等了4个小时，也只是从四指过渡到了五指。先容你爹做一点爹味小科普：生宝宝就像是把一个乒乓球从气球里面挤出来，气球要不断被挤压，扩大吹气口，慢慢把小球排出，而宫缩就是这个挤压的过程。如果宫缩不够强力，宝宝出来得就没那么快，开指也达不到预期的速度。

C | 这期间，我午饭吃了秋葵西洋菜肉末豆腐基围虾胡萝卜玉米排骨汤，晚饭又吃了菜心荷兰豆虫草花蒸鸡油焖茄子小蛋糕虫草花乌鸡汤。而你馋嘴的母亲因为打了无痛，被迫放弃刺身和榴莲计划，只能喝无渣流食，除了上述两道汤，她还喝了螺头松茸汤凉瓜元贝排骨汤番茄米汤原味米汤尖叫胡萝卜汁番石榴混合汁及椰子水两种。吃吃睡睡，浑浑噩噩之下，好评如潮的助产士陈三妹已经下班，换了另一位组长：梅小英（梅姐）来跟进余下的产程。梅姐介入后，做了两个令人肃然起敬的判断：第一，在发现四指到五指的时间太长，且胎心有所波动之后，判断数据不够准确，果断加了促进宫缩的药物；第二，在发现你的面部向一旁倾斜后，让你耐心的母亲侧趴着休息了一个小时，慢慢把你调整到了最容易生产的，面部朝下的方位，让你学着低下高贵的头颅。熬到这里，产房当中已经没有其他产妇，所有等待下班的医护同志，都慈爱地渴盼你的诞生。在我无耻地借用值班医生消过毒的洞洞鞋，再用你原本的浴巾，以及值班医生的沐浴液洗了个澡之后，22点整，香气四溢的我，开始观摩紧张刺激的最后一轮产程。在漫长的产程之下，你疲惫的母亲已经很难经历规律宫缩，获得辅助。

D | 像盼月，像祈雨，产房里的八个人一起等待每一阵微弱的潮汐。好多次你妈妈发力憋气时，我都同样屏住呼吸，不可抑制地出汗，一边看着她的脸浮现血丝，由白转红再转紫，一边把手扶在栏杆上，感受她双手的颤抖。猛一点！往前推！非常好！头发露出来了！头皮露出来了！刺激宫缩的药物，从12ml/h一点点涨到了110ml/h，但长期无痛之后的低烧袭来，胎心一度飙升到了170以上，医生时不时就会建议先休息一段时间。

E | 不用力的时候，你淡定的母亲面色沉稳，一边啜饮运动饮料，一边养精蓄锐，准备最后的冲刺——顺带一提，她啜饮的样子很可爱，愿你喝奶时也有这么好的胃口。

F | 如此循环往复，产程已经比预期超时了40分钟，你的头颅始终卡住。

G | 即便是你每周做三次瑜伽，在整个生产过程中没掉一滴眼泪的母亲，也因为降低了无痛剂量而有些扛不住。

H | 终于，在接生台已经摆好之后，憋了太久的你污染了羊水，梅姐果断侧切，拉出了你这条通体青紫的东北小紫薯。一直到亲手剪断脐带，我都不敢相信我们制造出了一个人类。可当看着原本哭声嘹亮的你，趴在妈妈身上一下子安静下来，我内心深处还是涌现出人类最庸俗，也最质朴的感动。其实我和你强悍的妈妈都主导过不少项目。用社畜的视角复盘，生你简直是一场最绝望的项目管理。

I | 虽然项目有着清晰的流程和节点交付物，但几乎每个节点的时间都无法提前评估。然而这个处处失控，无比脆弱的流程，却造就了人类伟大的延续，也给每个渺小的个体带来了巨大的幸福。写到这里，已经是10月19日。18日晚忙到凌晨4点，又在早上7点被医生叫醒的疲惫再次覆盖上来，但想一想今天几次探视你的时候，捏你的小脸、搓你的小脚，戳你的小腿，像胎教时那样对着你背诵诗词、唱晚安曲，再想一想跟你的姥姥姥爷、爷爷奶奶分享你的各种视频，我还是能感受到令人眩晕的催产素。自2013年起，每年我都会在你妈妈过生日的时候给她写一封信。从今天起，我工作之外的截稿日又多了一个。虽然我是你爹，但我庄严承诺，写给你的信会尽量收一收爹味。我还要承诺，未来每一年，我都会努力写得比这篇流水账更好一点——不过想达到给你美丽的母亲写信的水平，我们还是要多处一处。小松花，欢迎来到这个光怪陆离的世界。